Vaccine-Preventable Hospitalisations from Seasonal Respiratory Diseases: What Is Their True Value?

Hospitals in England experience extremely high levels of bed occupancy in the winter. In these circumstances, vaccine-preventable hospitalisations due to seasonal respiratory infections have a high cost because of the missed opportunity to treat other patients on the waiting list. This paper estimates the number of hospitalisations that current vaccines against influenza, pneumococcal disease (PD), COVID-19, and a hypothetical Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine, could prevent in the winter among older adults in England. Their costs were quantified using a conventional reference costing method and a novel opportunity costing approach considering the net monetary benefit (NMB) obtained from alternative uses of the hospital beds freed-up by vaccines. The influenza, PD and RSV vaccines could collectively prevent 72,813 bed days and save over £45 million in hospitalisation costs. The COVID-19 vaccine could prevent over 2 million bed days and save £1.3 billion. However, the value of hospital beds freed up by vaccination is likely to be 1.1-2 times larger (£48-93 million for flu, PD and RSV; £1.4-2.8 billion for COVID-19) when quantified in opportunity cost terms. Considering opportunity costs is key to ensuring maximum value is obtained from preventative budgets, as reference costing may significantly underestimate the true value of vaccines.

Role of hospital strain in determining outcomes for people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England.

BACKGROUND: In England, reported COVID-19 mortality rates increased during winter 2020/21 relative to earlier summer and autumn months. This study aimed to examine the association between COVID-19-related hospital bed-strain during this time and patient outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics data for England. All unique patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a completed (discharged alive or died in hospital) hospital stay with an admission date between 1 July 2020 and 28 February 2021 were included. Bed-strain was calculated as the number of beds occupied by patients with COVID-19 divided by the maximum COVID-19 bed occupancy during the study period. Bed-strain was categorised into quartiles for modelling. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest and length of stay a secondary outcome. RESULTS: There were 253 768 unique hospitalised patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay. Patient admissions peaked in January 2021 (n=89 047), although the crude mortality rate peaked slightly earlier in December 2020 (26.4%). After adjustment for covariates, the mortality rate in the lowest and highest quartile of bed-strain was 23.6% and 25.3%, respectively (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.17). For the lowest and the highest quartile of bed-strain, adjusted mean length of stay was 13.2 days and 11.6 days, respectively in survivors and was 16.5 days and 12.6 days, respectively in patients who died in hospital. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of bed-strain were associated with higher in-hospital mortality rates, although the effect was relatively modest and may not fully explain increased mortality rates during winter 2020/21 compared with earlier months. Shorter hospital stay during periods of greater strain may partly reflect changes in patient management over time.

Health gains from home energy efficiency measures: The missing evidence in the UK net-zero policy debate.

Objectives: This study examined the health gains from a programme of external wall insulation works to homes in south-west Scotland, and in particular the impact upon hospitalisations for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Furthermore, to consider how evidence on health outcomes could form part of the debate around actions to meet net-zero goals in the UK. Study design: This was a two-part study. Part one involved before-and-after interviews with 229 recipient households. The second part comprised an observational study of hospital admissions in 184 postcode areas. Methods: Across three years, interviews collected thermal comfort and self-reported health data(Sf-36) in the winter months prior to installation, and again in follow-up interviews the next winter. Standarised monthly data on non-elective admissions for each set of conditions were compared between the intervention postcodes and the wider health board area over a ten year period. Results: Following receipt of wall insulation, inability to achieve thermal comfort in winter reduced by two-thirds. Improvements in thermal comfort were associated with gains in physical health scores. Relative standardised admissions fell in the treatment areas, remaining lower than the district-wide standardised rate for the majority of a five year period, this effect ending during the Covid-19 pandemic. The impact on admissions was greater for respiratory conditions than for cardiovascular conditions. Conclusion: A weak policy commitment to energy efficiency could be strengthened with further evidence of the cost-savings and reduced hospital bed demand resulting from insulations works. The potential health gain may also encourage more home owners to participate.

COVIX—An Index Allowing for the Assessment of the Pandemic Situation Based on Infections and Hospitalisation Data

Monitoring and assessing the severity of the pandemic situation is one of the key challenges that public officials faced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily new infections may lead to flawed assessments, as infected individuals lead to different constraints imposed on the health care system amid varying pandemic determinants. On the other hand, hospitalisations or hospital bed occupancy may lead to outdated assessments, as the corresponding data are only observable with considerable delay. In this study, we introduce a hospital beds model, which relates the three quantities of daily new infections, daily hospitalisation rates, and daily hospital bed occupancy in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this model, we develop COVIX—a severity index that assesses the impact of a pandemic in comparison to a specified reference date while taking infection and disease risks into account. The developed methodology and its implications are illustrated on data for the German federal state of Bavaria. © 2023 by the authors.

Inequities in COVID-19 Omicron infections and hospitalisations for Maori and Pacific people in Te Manawa Taki Midland region, New Zealand.

COVID-19 impacts population health equity. While mRNA vaccines protect against serious illness and death, little New Zealand (NZ) data exist about the impact of Omicron - and the effectiveness of vaccination - on different population groups. We aim to examine the impact of Omicron on Maori, Pacific, and Other ethnicities and how this interacts with age and vaccination status in the Te Manawa Taki Midland region of NZ. Daily COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation rates (1 February 2022 to 29 June 2022) were calculated for Maori, Pacific, and Other ethnicities for six age bands. A multivariate logistic regression model quantified the effects of ethnicity, age, and vaccination on hospitalisation rates. Per-capita Omicron cases were highest and occurred earliest among Pacific (9 per 1,000) and Maori (5 per 1,000) people and were highest among 12-24-year-olds (7 per 1,000). Hospitalisation was significantly more likely for Maori people (odds ratio (OR) = 2.03), Pacific people (OR = 1.75), over 75-year-olds (OR = 39.22), and unvaccinated people (OR = 4.64). Length of hospitalisation is strongly related to age. COVID-19 vaccination reduces hospitalisations for older individuals and Maori and Pacific populations. Omicron inequitably impacted Maori and Pacific people through higher per-capita infection and hospitalisation rates. Older people are more likely to be hospitalised and for longer.

Trends and correlated outcomes in population-level prescription opioid and transdermal fentanyl use in Israel.

BACKGROUND: In the last twenty years, there was a documented increase in prescription opioid procurement in Israel. However, there is still little evidence of the association between opioid procurement rates, health service utilisation in secondary care, and enrollment rates to substance use disorder treatment programmes. In this study, we show trends in the reports of opioid-related hospitalisations, emergency department visits, enrollment to community-based outpatient treatment for Prescription Opioid Use Disorder and opioid-related mortality rates. Additionally, we examine potential correlations between these health service utilisation rates and prescription opioid procurement rates at the population level, with a focus on transdermal fentanyl. METHODS: A longitudinal study at the population level. We used seven-year data on indicators of opioid-related morbidity, prescription opioid procurement data for 2015-2021, and six-year opioid-related mortality data for 2015-2020. We measure the correlation between procurement rates of prescription opioids in Oral Morphine Equivalent per capita, and aggregated rates obtained from hospital administrative data for hospitalisations, emergency department visits, and patient enrolment in specialised prescription opioid use disorder outpatient treatment in the community setting. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2021, procurement rates in primary care per capita for all prescription opioids increased by 85%, while rates of transdermal fentanyl procurement increased by 162%. We found a significant positive correlation at the population level, between annual opioid procurement rates, and rates per population of opioid-related visits to emergency departments (r = 0.96, p value < 0.01, [CI 0.74-0.99]), as well as a positive correlation with the rates per population of patient enrolment in specialised prescription opioid use disorder outpatient treatment (r = 0.93, p value = 0.02, [CI 0.58-0.99]). Opioid-related mortality peaked in 2019 at 0.31 deaths per 100,000 but decreased to 0.20 deaths per 100,000 in 2020. CONCLUSION: Data shows that all-opioid and transdermal fentanyl procurement has increased yearly between 2015 and 2021. This increase is positively correlated with a growing demand for community-based Prescription Opioid Use Disorder outpatient treatment. Efforts to reduce opioid-related morbidity may require effective approaches toward appropriate prescribing, monitoring, and further increasing access to prescription opioid outpatient treatment.

Demographics of COVID-19 hospitalisations and related fatality risk patterns.

The assessment of hospitalisations and intensive care is crucial for planning health care resources needed over the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Nonetheless, comparative empirical assessments of COVID-19 hospitalisations and related fatality risk patterns on a large scale are lacking. This paper exploits anonymised, individual-level data on SARS-CoV-2 confirmed infections collected and harmonized by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to profile the demographics of COVID-19 hospitalised patients across nine European countries during the first pandemic wave (February - June 2020). We estimate the role of demographic factors for the risk of in-hospital mortality, and present a case study exploring individuals' comorbidities based on a subset of COVID-19 hospitalised patients available from the Dutch health system. We find that hospitalisation rates are highest among individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who are not only older than 70 years, but also 50-69 years. The latter group has a longer median time between COVID-19 symptoms' onset and hospitalisation than those aged 70+ years. Men have higher hospitalisation rates than women at all ages, and particularly above age 50. Consistently, men aged 50-59 years have a probability of hospitalisation almost double than women do. Although the gender imbalance in hospitalisation remains above age 70, the gap between men and women narrows at older ages. Comorbidities play a key role in explaining selection effects of COVID-19 confirmed positive cases requiring hospitalisation. Our study contributes to the evaluation of the COVID-19 burden on the demand of health-care during emergency phases. Assessing intensity and timing dimensions of hospital admissions, our findings allow for a better understanding of COVID-19 severe outcomes. Results point to the need of suitable calibrations of epidemiological projections and (re)planning of health services, enhancing preparedness to deal with infectious disease outbreaks.

Validation of COPDPredict™: Unique Combination of Remote Monitoring and Exacerbation Prediction to Support Preventative Management of COPD Exacerbations.

Background: COPDPredict™ is a novel digital application dedicated to providing early warning of imminent COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) exacerbations for prompt intervention. Exacerbation prediction algorithms are based on a decision tree model constructed from percentage thresholds for disease state changes in patient-reported wellbeing, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Our study determined the validity of COPDPredict™ to identify exacerbations and provide timely notifications to patients and clinicians compared to clinician-defined episodes. Methods: In a 6-month prospective observational study, 90 patients with COPD and frequent exacerbations registered wellbeing self-assessments daily using COPDPredict™ App and measured FEV1 using connected spirometers. CRP was measured using finger-prick testing. Results: Wellbeing self-assessment submissions showed 98% compliance. Ten patients did not experience exacerbations and treatment was unchanged. A total of 112 clinician-defined exacerbations were identified in the remaining 80 patients: 52 experienced 1 exacerbation; 28 had 2.2±0.4 episodes. Sixty-two patients self-managed using prescribed rescue medication. In 14 patients, exacerbations were more severe but responded to timely escalated treatment at home. Four patients attended the emergency room; with 2 hospitalised for <72 hours. Compared to the 6 months pre-COPDPredict™, hospitalisations were reduced by 98% (90 vs 2, p<0.001). COPDPredict™ identified COPD-related exacerbations at 7, 3 days (median, IQR) prior to clinician-defined episodes, sending appropriate alerts to patients and clinicians. Cross-tabulation demonstrated sensitivity of 97.9% (95% CI 95.7-99.2), specificity of 84.0% (95% CI 82.6-85.3), positive and negative predictive value of 38.4% (95% CI 36.4-40.4) and 99.8% (95% CI 99.5-99.9), respectively. Conclusion: High sensitivity indicates that if there is an exacerbation, COPDPredict™ informs patients and clinicians accurately. The high negative predictive value implies that when an exacerbation is not indicated by COPDPredict™, risk of an exacerbation is low. Thus, COPDPredict™ provides safe, personalised, preventative care for patients with COPD.

Quantifying the impact of air pollution on Covid-19 hospitalisation and death rates in Scotland.

Better understanding the risk factors that exacerbate Covid-19 symptoms and lead to worse health outcomes is vitally important in the public health fight against the virus. One such risk factor that is currently under investigation is air pollution concentrations, with some studies finding statistically significant effects while other studies have found no consistent associations. The aim of this paper is to add to this global evidence base on the potential association between air pollution concentrations and Covid-19 hospitalisations and deaths, by presenting the first study on this topic at the small-area scale in Scotland, United Kingdom. Our study is one of the most comprehensive to date in terms of its temporal coverage, as it includes all hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland between 1st March 2020 and 31st July 2021. We quantify the effects of air pollution on Covid-19 outcomes using a small-area spatial ecological study design, with inference using Bayesian hierarchical models that allow for the residual spatial correlation present in the data. A key advantage of our study is its extensive sensitivity analyses, which examines the robustness of the results to our modelling assumptions. We find clear evidence that PM2.5 concentrations are associated with hospital admissions, with a 1 µgm-3 increase in concentrations being associated with between a 7.4% and a 9.3% increase in hospitalisations. In addition, we find some evidence that PM2.5 concentrations are associated with deaths, with a 1 µgm-3 increase in concentrations being associated with between a 2.9% and a 10.3% increase in deaths.

Changes in community and hospital-based health care use during the COVID-19 pandemic for adults with and without intellectual and developmental disabilities.

BACKGROUND: Due to the functional, cognitive and communication impairments associated with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities (IDD), adaptations to service delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic may impact people with IDD differently than others. For community and hospital-based services, this study describes the proportion of adults with and without IDD who used health care in the year pre-COVID-19 and the first year of the pandemic. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used linked health administrative databases to identify adults aged 18-105 years with and without IDD using unique encoded identifiers. Counts and proportions of adults who used health care services were reported for the pre-COVID-19 year (16 March 2019 to 14 March 2020) and the first COVID-19 year (15 March 2020 to 15 March 2021). RESULTS: Across services, the proportion of adults who used services was lower during the first COVID-19 year compared with the year prior, except for virtual physician visits that increased markedly for people with and without IDD. While the proportion of adults who used services was higher for those with IDD compared with those without IDD for both years, differences were greatest for mental health emergency visits and hospitalisations; adults with IDD were 6.3 to 10.9 times more likely to use these services than others with no IDD during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: During the first COVID-19 year in Ontario, Canada, service use decreased for all service types, except for virtual physician visits. In both years, adults with IDD remained more likely to use services than other adults, with the largest differences in use of mental health hospitalisations and mental health emergency department visits.

Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in European countries as per data up to 21 November 2021.

We estimate the potential remaining COVID-19 hospitalisation and death burdens in 19 European countries by estimating the proportion of each country's population that has acquired immunity to severe disease through infection or vaccination. Our results suggest many European countries could still face high burdens of hospitalisations and deaths, particularly those with lower vaccination coverage, less historical transmission and/or older populations. Continued non-pharmaceutical interventions and efforts to achieve high vaccination coverage are required in these countries to limit severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a national lockdown on hospitalizations for stroke and related 30-day mortality in France: A nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim of this nationwide study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stroke hospitalization rates, patient characteristics and 30-day case fatality rates. METHODS: All hospitalizations for stroke from January to June of each year from 2017 to 2020 were selected using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, codes I60 to I64 in the national hospital discharge database. Patient characteristics and management were described according to three time periods: pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown. Weekly incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were computed to compare time trends in the rates of patients hospitalized for stroke as well as in-hospital and 30-day case fatality rates between the years 2017-2019 and 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, between weeks 1 and 24, 55,308 patients were hospitalized for stroke in France. IRRs decreased by up to 30% for all age groups, sex, and stroke types during the lockdown compared to the period 2017-2019. Patients hospitalized during the second and third weeks of the lockdown had higher in-hospital case fatality rates compared to 2017-2019. In-hospital case fatality rates increased by almost 60% in patients aged under 65 years. Out-of-hospital 30-day case fatality rates increased between weeks 11 and 15 among patients who returned home after their hospitalization. Important changes in care management were found, including fewer stroke patients admitted to resuscitation units, more admitted to stroke care units, and a shorter mean length of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: During the first weeks of the lockdown, rates of patients hospitalized for stroke fell by 30% and there were substantial increases of both in-hospital and out-of-hospital 30-day case fatality rates.

Comparison of the medical burden of COVID-19 with seasonal influenza and measles outbreaks.

AIM: To examine and compare the medical burden of measles, influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks in the city of Bnei Brak, Israel. METHODS: The study was conducted during 2018-2021. The numbers of hospitalisations for these infections and their complications were recorded. Hospitalisation rates were determined by using the number of children residing in Bnei Brak and hospitalised with these infections during the study period as the numerators. The denominators were the estimated paediatric cases of measles, influenza and COVID-19 in Bnei Brak and were calculated under both pragmatic and conservative assumptions. RESULTS: A total of 247, 65 and 32 children were hospitalised with influenza, COVID-19 and measles respectively. Complication rates were higher following measles than after influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infections. Hospitalisation rates were 10% for measles, 0.6%-1.2% for influenza and 0.15% - 0.25% for COVID-19 infections. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for hospitalisation following measles compared with COVID-19 ranged from 42 (26.3-67.3) to 70.1 (43.8-112.1), while the relative risks for influenza hospitalisation ranged from 2.5 (1.83-3.41) to 8.2 (6.0-11.2), compared with COVID-19 infection. CONCLUSION: Hospitalisation rates and direct medical burdens of measles and influenza were significantly higher than those of COVID-19 infection in children.

Comparative study between admission, orthopaedic surgery, and economic trends during Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 pandemic in an Italian tertiary hospital: a retrospective review.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic represents one of the most massive health emergencies in the last century and has caused millions of deaths worldwide and a massive economic and social burden. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the COVID-19 pandemic-during the Italian lockdown period between 8 March and 4 May 2020-influenced orthopaedic access for traumatic events to the Emergency Department (ER). METHODS: A retrospective review of the admission to the emergency room and the discharge of the trauma patients' records was performed during the period between 8 March and 4 May 2020 (block in Italy), compared to the same period of the previous year (2019). Patients accesses, admissions, days of hospitalisation, frequency, fracture site, number and type of surgery, the time between admission and surgery, days of hospitalisation, and treatment cost according to the diagnosis-related group were collected. Chi-Square and ANOVA test were used to compare the groups. RESULTS: No significant statistical difference was found for the number of emergency room visits and orthopaedic hospitalisations (p < 0.53) between the year 2019 (9.5%) and 2020 (10.81%). The total number of surgeries in 2019 was 119, while in 2020, this was just 48 (p < 0.48). A significant decrease in the mean cost of orthopaedic hospitalisations was detected in 2020 compared (261.431 euros, equal to - 52.07%) relative to the same period in 2019 (p = 0.005). Although all the surgical performances have suffered a major decline, the most frequent surgery in 2020 was intramedullary femoral nailing. CONCLUSION: We detected a decrease in traumatic occasions during the lockdown period, with a decrease in fractures in each district and a consequent decrease in the diagnosis-related group (DRG).

Hospitalisations for emergency-sensitive conditions in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from the German-wide Helios hospital network.

BACKGROUND: While there are numerous reports that describe emergency care during the early COVID-19 pandemic, there is scarcity of data for later stages. This study analyses hospitalisation rates for 37 emergency-sensitive conditions in the largest German-wide hospital network during different pandemic phases. METHODS: Using claims data of 80 hospitals, consecutive cases between 1 January and 17 November 2020 were analysed and compared with a corresponding period in 2019. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the two periods were calculated using Poisson regression to model the number of hospitalisations per day. RESULTS: There was a reduction in hospitalisations between 12 March and 13 June 2020 (coinciding with the first pandemic wave) with 32 807 hospitalisations (349.0/day) as opposed to 39 379 (419.0/day) in 2019 (IRR 0.83, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.85, p<0.01). During the following period (14 June-17 November 2020, including the start of second wave), hospitalisations were reduced from 63 799 (406.4/day) in 2019 to 59 910 (381.6/day) in 2020, but this reduction was not as pronounced (IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.95, p<0.01). During the first wave hospitalisations for acute myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm/dissection, pneumonitis, paralytic ileus/intestinal obstruction and pulmonary embolism declined but subsequently increased compared with the corresponding periods in 2019. In contrast, hospitalisations for sepsis, pneumonia, obstructive pulmonary disease and intracranial injuries were reduced during the entire observation period. CONCLUSIONS: There was an overall reduction of absolute hospitalisations for emergency-sensitive conditions in Germany during the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic with heterogeneous effects on different disease categories. The increase in hospitalisations for acute myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm/dissection and pulmonary embolism requires attention and further studies.

Pseudo-safety in a cohort of patients with COVID-19 discharged home from the emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: EDs are often the first line of contact with individuals infected with COVID-19 and play a key role in triage. However, there is currently little specific guidance for deciding when patients with COVID-19 require hospitalisation and when they may be safely observed as an outpatient. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we characterised all patients with COVID-19 discharged home from EDs in our US multisite healthcare system from March 2020 to August 2020, focusing on individuals who returned within 2 weeks and required hospital admission. We restricted analyses to first-encounter data that do not depend on laboratory or imaging diagnostics in order to inform point-of-care assessments in resource-limited environments. Vitals and comorbidities were extracted from the electronic health record. We performed ordinal logistic regression analyses to identify predictors of inpatient admission, intensive care and intubation. RESULTS: Of n=923 patients who were COVID-19 positive discharged from the ED, n=107 (11.6%) returned within 2 weeks and were admitted. In a multivariable-adjusted model including n=788 patients with complete risk factor information, history of hypertension increased odds of hospitalisation and severe illness by 1.92-fold (95% CI 1.07 to 3.41), diabetes by 2.20-fold (1.18 to 4.02), chronic lung disease by 2.21-fold (1.22 to 3.92) and fever by 2.89-fold (1.71 to 4.82). Having at least two of these risk factors increased the odds of future hospitalisation by 6.68-fold (3.54 to 12.70). Patients with hypertension, diabetes, chronic lung disease or fever had significantly longer hospital stays (median 5.92 days, 3.08-10.95 vs 3.21, 1.10-5.75, p<0.01) with numerically higher but not significantly different rates of intensive care unit admission (27.02% vs 14.30%, p=0.27) and intubation (12.16% vs 7.14%, p=0.71). DISCUSSION: Patients infected with COVID-19 may appear clinically safe for home convalescence. However, those with hypertension, diabetes, chronic lung disease and fever may in fact be only 'pseudo-safe' and are most at risk for subsequent hospitalisation with more severe illness and longer hospital stays.

An evaluation of enhanced surveillance of hospitalised COVID-19 patients to inform the public health response in Victoria.

BACKGROUND: Public health surveillance is crucial for supporting a rapid and effective response to public health emergencies. In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, an enhanced surveillance system of hospitalised COVID-19 patients was established by the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) and the Victorian Healthcare Associated Infection Surveillance System Coordinating Centre. The system aimed to reduce workforce capacity constraints and increase situational awareness on the status of hospitalised patients. METHODS: The system was evaluated, using guidelines from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, against eight attributes: acceptability; data quality; flexibility; representativeness; simplicity; stability; timeliness; and usefulness. Evidence was generated from stakeholder consultation, participant observation, document review, systems review, issues log review and audits. Data were collected and analysed over a period of up to three months, covering pre- and post-implementation from March to June 2020. RESULTS: This system was rapidly established by leveraging established relationships and infrastructure. Stakeholders agreed that the system was important but was limited by a reliance on daily manual labour (including weekends), which impeded scalability. The ability of the system to perform well in each attribute was expected to shift with the severity of the pandemic; however, at the time of this evaluation, when there were an average 23 new cases per day (0.3 cases per 100,000 population per day), the system performed well. CONCLUSION: This enhanced surveillance system was useful and achieved its key DHHS objectives during the COVID-19 public health emergency in Victoria. Recommendations for improvement were made to the current and future systems, including the need to plan alternatives to improve the system's scalability and to maintain stakeholder acceptability.

Hospital outcomes after a COVID-19 diagnosis from January to May 2020 in New South Wales Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To describe hospitalisation rates following COVID-19 infection in NSW. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of all confirmed COVID-19 cases diagnosed in NSW from 1 January to 31 May 2020 extracted from the NSW Notifiable Conditions Information Management System and linked to routinely collected hospitalisation data. OUTCOME MEASURES: In-patient hospitalisations and hospital service utilisation details. RESULTS: There were 3,101 COVID-19 cases diagnosed between 1 January and 31 May 2020 in NSW: mean age 46.7 years, 50.5% were females. Overall, 12.5% (n = 389) had a record of inpatient hospitalisation, 4.2% (n = 130) were admitted to ICU and 1.9% (n = 58) received ventilation. Among adult cases, hospital and ICU admission rates increased with increasing age: 2.9% of those aged 20-29 years were hospitalised, increasing to 46.6% of those aged 80-89 years; 0.6% of those aged 20-29 years were admitted to ICU, increasing to 11.2% of those aged 70-79 years. The median time from symptoms to hospitalisation was seven days (IQR 4-11). The median time in hospital was nine days (IQR 4-20), and in ICU six days (IQR 2-15); the median time in hospital increased with older age. Almost half (49.4%) of those hospitalised with a diagnostic code had pneumonia/lower respiratory tract infection and another 36.6% had an upper respiratory tract infection or other known COVID-19 symptoms. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 is a serious infection particularly in older adults. During January to May of 2020, 1 in 8 of those diagnosed in NSW were hospitalised. While this partly reflects the cautious approach to case management in the initial phase of the pandemic, it also demonstrates the large potential impact of COVID-19 on Australian health services and need for continuing mitigation strategies.

Survival and predictors of deaths of patients hospitalised due to COVID-19 from a retrospective and multicentre cohort study in Brazil.

This study aimed to analyse the survival of patients admitted to Brazilian hospitals due to the COVID-19 and estimate prognostic factors. This is a retrospective, multicentre cohort study, based on data from 46 285 hospitalisations for COVID-19 in Brazil. Survival functions were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier's method. The log-rank test compared the survival functions for each variable and from that, hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated, and the proportional hazard model was used in Cox multiple regression. The smallest survival curves were the ones for patients at the age of 68 years or more, black/mixed race, illiterate, living in the countryside, dyspnoea, respiratory distress, influenza-like outbreak, O2 saturation <95%, X-ray change, length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU), invasive ventilatory support, previous heart disease, pneumopathy, diabetes, Down's syndrome, neurological disease and kidney disease. Better survival was observed in the influenza-like outbreak and in an asthmatic patient. The multiple model for increased risk of death when they were admitted to the ICU HR 1.28, diabetes HR 1.17, neurological disease HR 1.34, kidney disease HR 1.11, heart disease HR 1.14, black or mixed race of HR 1.50, asthma HR 0.71 and pneumopathy HR 1.12. This reinforces the importance of socio-demographic and clinical factors as a prognosis for death.